Jimmie Johnson has been NASCAR's #1 driver all year long. If it were not for a mid-summer hick-up, Johnson would have went wire-to-wire as the championship leader. Heading into this weekend's Ford 400 at Miami-Homestead, Johnson has a lead of 63 points over 2nd place Matt Kenseth. Only twice, in NASCAR's modern era, has a driver lost the points lead in the final race of the season. That doesn't seem to be likely this year. Johnson and the 48 Lowe's Chevy always seem to find a way to finish near the top. Johnson hasn't finished outside of the top-2 in nearly a month. And this weekend all Johnson needs is a top-12 finish to clinch the NEXTEL Cup.
Johnson seems poised to win his first title. In his 5-year career in NASCAR's top division Johnson has been competitive in all of them. He has been the championship runner-up twice. But, this time he takes the lead to Miami and Matt Kenseth has all but conceeded the championship. Kenseth has not ran great in the Chase for the NEXTEL Cup, but due to the fact that he entered the Chase as the points leader and just hasn't had as much bad luck as everybody else he finds himself in 2nd.
When Kenseth won the last Winston Cup he was criticized because he only won one race. That was one of the reasons that NASCAR went to the Chase system. So, I don't think that Kenseth wants to win this one with a bunch of 12th and 13th place finishes. Kenseth is not the only driver besides Johnson with a shot to win the title.
Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. all have a chance to win the championship this weekend. However, they are each 90 or more points behind. That means to win the championship they would need to win the race and have Johnson finish in the mid-30s. And, I don't think that will happen to Johnson. It could, because it's NASCAR and it is unpredictable. Anything can happen. Johnson could blow a tire early and hit the wall or he could get caught up in someone else's mess.
The important thing for Johnson is not to be too conservative. They will run the race conservatively and concentrate on not beating themselves. But, you can be too conservative and that can be the thing that beats you. They just don't need to take chances. They need to run the race as they normally would, minus the risky passes and making risky calls on pit road. They cannot sit in the middle to the back of the pack and expect to hold on to the championship. They will be tempting fate if they do that.
Luckily for Johnson, he has a lot of support around him. Rick Hendrick has won 5 championships as an owner, 4 of those were won by Johnson's teammate and co-owner, Jeff Gordon. Between Hendrick and Gordon will be enough advice and wisdom to put Johnson in the right place at the right time.
The excitement this weekend will be for the final spot in the top-35 in owner points. Kyle Petty is 47 points ahead of 36th place Sterling Marlin. Why is the top-35 so important? Well, because the top-35 in owners points are guaranteed a spot in the first 5 races next season. And that will be big because there will be a lot more teams trying to get into the races next year with the entry of Toyota into NASCAR. Kyle Petty should have no problem holding that advantage over Marlin because they never seem to be more than 3 to 4 spots away from each other at the end of the races.
I said at the beginning of the Chase that Kevin Harvick would win the NEXTEL Cup. I guess I will be wrong, but it won't be the first (or last) time that it will happen. Harvick could still pull it out with a miracle, but it doesn't seem unlikely. It is going to be Jimmie Johnson's evening Sunday. He should get the championship and it will validate everything that team has done over the past few years. Congratulations Jimmie! I hope that I am not getting too far ahead of myself.
Photos:
1.http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/050316/050316
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2.http://nbc25.net/uploadedImages/weyi/Sports/Stories/jimmie%20johnson.jpg
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