Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are in. Kenseth leads Johnson by 9 points. After last week's race in California it was obvious that Kenseth wasn't going to just lie down, eventhough he had secured a position in the chase a week earlier in Bristol. So, I would look for Kenseth to race just as agressive as if he were in 9th or 10th as opposed to first. Neither Kenseth nor Johnson can start the chase any worse than first or second; therefore, they have nothing to lose by going after the win this weekend. Johnson will just try to roll of his weekly top-10 and Kenseth will fight to the front. Come Saturday night Kenseth will lead drivers into the Chase.
Kevin Harvick has had an awesome year. He has 2 wins (Phoenix and Watkins Glen) and ran strong, leading the most laps before finishing 3rd, in the spring Richmond race. Harvick needs to finish 40th or better to secure a spot in the Chase, and he will definitely do that. Jeff Gordon trails Harvick for 3rd in the points by 45 points. I don't see Gordon passing Harvick; however, 45 points is only 7-10 finiishing positions. Gordon has 2 wins at Richmond, but has fallen on hard times over his last several trips. Look for him to bounce back and garner a top-5 finish, much higher than the redquired top-25 needed to secure a Chase spot. Harvick will finish in the top-10 to make it in.
Kyle Busch (5th) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6th) are separated by a mere 18 points. Earnhardt Jr. has 3 career wins, including the spring race this year, and has always ran well. Kyle Busch needs only a top-22 finish and Jr. needs a top-16 finish. The always aggressive Busch will aim for the win, while Jr. will focus on making the Chase after missing it last season. Thus, Kyle Busch will maintain 5th while Jr. will probably fall to 7th. Denny Hamlin only trails Jr. by 1 point for 6th place and Hamlin will finish in the top-10 and will force Jr. to start the Chase in 7th or worse.
Now is where it gets good. Who will fall out? I am going to go way out on a limb and say Tony Stewart, currently in 8th, will be the odd man out. Stewart has had a roller coaster year and hasn't looked particularly strong over the last few weeks. Jeff Burton and Mark Martin both need top-4 finishes to secure a spot. I look for Stewart to have a bad night and allow for Burton to make it into the Chase with a top-10 finish. Martin and the AAA Ford Fusion will have a good night and come home inside the Chase with a 6th place finish.
That leaves one man,
Kasey Kahne. If Stewart's out, then Kahne must be in. Kahne dominated last week in California earning the most points possible. As of right now Kahne is 30 points outside the top-10. His first career win came at Richmond and he has added 5 more wins this year, the most of any driver. Kahne will have a repeat of last week in California. His whole team's attitude is to not rely solely on the competition to falter. Plus, Kahne can't afford to sit back and wait for other's to fall; the competition is just too stiff. His win will propel him a few spots in the standings and make the competition nervous with his 6 wins this season.So, if I am correct in my predictions, then the Chase, which heads to Loudon, NH next week, will look like the following:
1. Matt Kenseth --
2. Jimmie Johnson -5
3. Kevin Harvick -10
4. Jeff Gordon -15
5. Kyle Busch -20
6. Denny Hamlin -25
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -30
8. Kasey Kahne -35
9. Mark Martin -40
10. Jeff Burton -45
Come back next week to see who will win the Nextel Cup in 10 weeks!
No comments:
Post a Comment