The Chase is On!!

In just 10 short weeks we will know who will be the 2006 Nextel Cup champion. But, I would like to take a shot at predicting who will win it. It should be a great Chase. One prediction, that is not so bold, is that this will be the best Chase since its inception in 2004.

I would like to start by saying: I knew Tony Stewart wouldn't make the Chase, but, that's about all I got right. Now, the question of who will win the Cup. Let's start with who will not...

Jimmie Johnson has been so close of the past few years. He will fall short again this year as well. He has inconsistent of late and has been inconsistent in his past Chase appearances. It's time for Johnson to call Phil Mickelson, because I am sure Mickelson still has the belt of "Best to Never Win the Big One" lying around the house.

Kyle Busch? Well, he's a young kid and his day will come, but it's not today. Those 25 points he lost in Charlotte for throwing his HANS device at Casey Mears will come back to haunt him in November.

Denny Hamlin has exceeded any expectations that anyone could have had for him. It has been a great season for him, no matter what happens from here on out. He will win one if not two by the end of the decade, but not in his rookie season.

Dale Jr.? We will come back to him... Jeff Burton is back to his old self. He should get a win in one of the Chase races, maybe even this week in New Hampshire where he once led all 300 laps. However, it has been a roller coaster year for the 31 team, which saw him limp into the Chase. Not this year for Burton.

These next guys have some work to do if they hope to win it... Dale Jr. is back in the Chase where he belongs. He got into the Chase on good luck and pit strategy. I'm not a Jr. fan, but I would love to see that name on the cup again one day. I just don't think it will happen this year with DEI's admitted problem with horsepower. He will win one one-day. And as for Mark Martin, he will be the sentimental favorite. But, he also has limped into the Chase. You have to believe that Jack Rousch will do his best to get Martin his championship. I just don't see it happening.

The chase within the Chase will be between 4 guys. First, Matt Kenseth who has been on fire of late. He is a past champion and leads the points heading into the Chase. Second, Kevin Harvick who is having one of tea best seasons in history. He is looking to become the first to win both the Busch Series title and the Nextel Cup in the same year. Next, Jeff Gordon, a 4-time champion, is the only other champion in the Chase. He knows how to get it done and is starting to run out of time to catch 7-time champions Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. Finally, Kasey Kahne who clawed his way into the Chase and has more wins than anyone else this season at 5. Can he keep it going or has he exhausted himself already? We shall see.

Of those 4 guys, who will win it? If I were a betting man, and I am not, then I would put my money on Harvick. He just has that championship look. And, it would be awesome to see that Goodwrench Chevy with cup yet again. He deserves it. He took over that car after the untimely death of Dale Earnhardt in 2001 and has been more successful than anyone would have guessed. Richard Childress and Kevin Harvick will get it done in Homestead, Fla. and will hoist that silver NEXTEL Cup in November. The other 3 guys will not make it easy, but nothing in Harvick's NEXTEL Cup career has been easy.

So, let's sit back and enjoy the Chase and see how I do this time around...